Posts Categorized: MARKET THOUGHTS

Running Out of Options? | August 3, 2018

The economic cycle has been running for 112 months, well beyond its 68-month average.  Are central banks running out of options to sustain it going forward? For years, the question was “When will the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) raise rates?” Now it is, “When will they stop?” As they raise…
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The Path Forward | July 27, 2018

It was a busy week–from corporate earnings to central bank meetings. What moved markets and what leads the path forward? Earnings The most dramatic shift as a result of earnings was in Facebook, as they fell 19% on Thursday. This came after their forward guidance warned of lower profits due…
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Happy Birthday, FFS! | July 20, 2018

Happy birthday, FFS! There is plenty going on this past week, with Tariffs, Fed Independence, and corporate earnings… We will get back to reviewing the week’s activity next week, but today we want to take a moment to say thank you! Thank you to all our clients and the support…
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FRB Hangover | July 13, 2018

Man, can the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) throw a hell of a party!  9 years and we are still not feeling the hangover; when will it come? A decade ago the FRB reduced interest rates to the zero bound.  They also managed to build a hefty balance sheet, $4.5T; all…
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Trade Reality | July 6, 2018

After months of trade threats by both the US and China, the threats came to fruition last week. How will the markets respond?   There is expected to be an overall rise in consumer costs as producer costs will rise with tariffs. This makes inflation a concern in the near…
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Low For… Ever? | June 29, 2018

The mantra for the last decade has been ‘low for long’. Is it possible that we could be looking at ‘Low For… ever?’ Here is some background on ‘Low for long’…  It refers to low interest rates for a prolonged period. The benefit of low for long is the reduced…
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Attack of the Tariff! | June 22, 2018

The week started as it ended the prior Friday.  Attack of the tariff from every angle!  What could tariffs mean for growth during the second half of the year? Tariffs The focus was on tariffs as the week started, but rather than the threat to move the needle for negotiations,…
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Central Bank Week | June 15, 2018

While the Singapore Summit garnished headlines, central banks across the globes moved Markets! The Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) reported the results of their two-day meeting on Wednesday. They increased the Fed Funds Rate from a range of 1.75% to 2%. More importantly, they increased the outlook for the remainder of…
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Cutting Through the Noise | June 8, 2018

With several geo-political concerns of late, it is difficult for markets to cut through the noise. They found a way last week, hopefully that continues! Tensions mounted and not between enemies. US tariffs extended to Europe, Canada, and Mexico on June 1st— creating undue tension.  These came just in time…
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Course Correction | June 1, 2018

The S&P 500 gained 13.29 points, or 0.5% last week. Was this a course correction, or a false positive? There were several points during the week where the expectation was that the correction was continuing: Europe caused concerns early on as the government formed in Italy could prompt ‘Italeave’ and…
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