Posts Categorized: MARKET THOUGHTS

Trading Foes | October 5, 2018

Trading Foes | October 5, 2018

Markets gave back all their gains on Thursday and Friday. Much of it was related to trading foes, was there just cause for the reversal? The Good The USMCA (NAFTA 2.0) reaches agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada. USMCA provides for improved agreement conditions for autos, dairy, and building…
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Neutral | September 28, 2018

Neutral - Market Thoughts

Last week, the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) increased the short-term rate by .25% making FRB policy technically neutral for the first time since 2008! Accommodative Since the financial crisis, the FRB has been very accommodative… First with quantitative easing 1, 2, and 3 (where the FRB purchased Treasuries to infuse…
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Low, Low, Low | September 21, 2018

low

Congratulations US economy, chugging along at new market highs! These highs came on the back of low tariffs, low new unemployment claims, and low dollar. Low Tarrifs New tariffs were announced early last week. This typically would spur a negative response from markets, however this time, markets were pleasantly surprised….
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False Hope? | Market Thoughts | September 14, 2018

Favorable data, favorable returns… Globally markets expanded last week giving us reason to be happy. Is it a false hope? Consumer confidence heading into the 4th quarter is the highest it has been since March, which led into a quarter where GDP did 4.2%. Make no mistake our confidence translates…
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Trip Around the Globe | September 7, 2018

Trip Around the Globe

It was a busy week, with data from across the globe impacting markets. Here is a trip around what happened. Tariffs, of course… Tariffs did not happen last week! The White House was able to impose $200B in tariffs on Thursday but has yet to pull the trigger. The potential…
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Life Support | August 31, 2018

The yield curve is on life support and the dynamics that impact it from week to week merit watching! Here is what moved the curve last week. Tariff Talk President Trump announced $200B in additional tariffs slated for September 6th. Markets reacted negatively to the news, but not as sharply…
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Shifting the Curve | August 24, 2018

Last week marked a major shift in Federal Reserve Board (FRB) language–a  shift that could impact the yield curve and extend this bull market! Week’s News Last week Wednesday marked the passing of a major milestone. Until that time, the bull market from 1990 to 2000 was the longest bull…
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Breaking Point | August 17, 2018

Last week, we got inflation and consumer sentiment data; they show conflicting views on the economy. Is there a breaking point coming? Core consumer prices (which strips out fuel and food) came in at 2.4% year over year growth. This typically represents an increasing consumer demand which leads to rising…
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European Hot Bed | August 10, 2018

Trip Around the Globe

The European Union was a hot bed of risk last week. Are those risks poised to present a problem or opportunity? Turkey has come into focus in the last week as they have been holding an American Pastor accused of being involved in an attempted coup. This has drawn the…
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Running Out of Options? | August 3, 2018

The economic cycle has been running for 112 months, well beyond its 68-month average.  Are central banks running out of options to sustain it going forward? For years, the question was “When will the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) raise rates?” Now it is, “When will they stop?” As they raise…
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