Posts Categorized: MARKET THOUGHTS

FRB Hangover | July 13, 2018

Man, can the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) throw a hell of a party!  9 years and we are still not feeling the hangover; when will it come? A decade ago the FRB reduced interest rates to the zero bound.  They also managed to build a hefty balance sheet, $4.5T; all…
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Trade Reality | July 6, 2018

After months of trade threats by both the US and China, the threats came to fruition last week. How will the markets respond?   There is expected to be an overall rise in consumer costs as producer costs will rise with tariffs. This makes inflation a concern in the near…
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Low For… Ever? | June 29, 2018

The mantra for the last decade has been ‘low for long’. Is it possible that we could be looking at ‘Low For… ever?’ Here is some background on ‘Low for long’…  It refers to low interest rates for a prolonged period. The benefit of low for long is the reduced…
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Attack of the Tariff! | June 22, 2018

The week started as it ended the prior Friday.  Attack of the tariff from every angle!  What could tariffs mean for growth during the second half of the year? Tariffs The focus was on tariffs as the week started, but rather than the threat to move the needle for negotiations,…
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Central Bank Week | June 15, 2018

While the Singapore Summit garnished headlines, central banks across the globes moved Markets! The Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) reported the results of their two-day meeting on Wednesday. They increased the Fed Funds Rate from a range of 1.75% to 2%. More importantly, they increased the outlook for the remainder of…
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Cutting Through the Noise | June 8, 2018

With several geo-political concerns of late, it is difficult for markets to cut through the noise. They found a way last week, hopefully that continues! Tensions mounted and not between enemies. US tariffs extended to Europe, Canada, and Mexico on June 1st— creating undue tension.  These came just in time…
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Course Correction | June 1, 2018

The S&P 500 gained 13.29 points, or 0.5% last week. Was this a course correction, or a false positive? There were several points during the week where the expectation was that the correction was continuing: Europe caused concerns early on as the government formed in Italy could prompt ‘Italeave’ and…
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Market Thoughts | Reverse Course | May 25, 2018

Oil, Rates, and Europe have all reversed course this last week. What were the catalysts, and should we be concerned? The US backed away recently from the Iran deal. That action results in the eventual sanctioning of Iran, which will leave them, as well as the heavily sanctioned Venezuela, under…
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Inverse Indicators | May 18, 2018

Two main indicators of future market activity were conflicting this past week. Which indicator should we listen to? Oil prices rose during the week to $72.15 and eventually settled at $71.35. $72.15 marked the highest oil price seen since 2014. Elevated commodity prices are often a signal of the end…
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Oil, Oil, and Oil | May 11, 2018

Last week, saw a rise in S&P 500 performance. Will recent momentum evaporate as we move away from earnings season? 1st quarter earnings are projected to increase approximately 24.9%, a strong year over year increase thanks in large part to tax reform. Nearly 80% of companies are beating expectations and…
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