Posts Categorized: MARKET THOUGHTS

Manufacturing vs Services

Manufacturing and Services make up 90% of GDP, but which should we focus more of our attention on? Manufacturing Current Manufacturing data for the US came in at 53.1 on 10/1/15. Through-out 2015 Manufacturing peaked at 55.7 in March and has declined to its current level[1]. What do these numbers…
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Fear the Consumer

The markets were up last week as soft US economic data led many to believe the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) may hold off action till 2016. The consumer may have something to say about that… The case against a rate hike: There was plenty of data on the market to…
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Central Bank Party

Apparently the party rages on for Central Banks. They continue to incentivize markets and spending without a care for the consequences… Have you ever been to a party that was so much fun you just did not want the night to end? The host did a great job picking the…
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October, Don’t Go!

October turned out to be the best performing month on the market in 4 years. What did it and can it continue? No! No suspense, just no! The S & P 500 expanded by more than 8% in the month of October. That kind of pace is not sustainable. The…
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5.0

Ah, the 5.0, it use to be the status symbol of cool; perhaps somethings never change… With the unemployment rate falling to 5.0% this past Friday, the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) may finally see fit to start raising interest rates. This would imply that the US economy was cool! Bit…
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Baked In

Markets retreated last week, potentially baking in the assumption that the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) will likely increase rates in December. What led to these assumptions? Baking in a Fed Rate Increase Markets broadly retreated after six straight weeks of gains. The broad sell off was initiated by stronger than…
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Inflate This!

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! This is not about footballs! Inflation data over the last week has pointed to an underlying theme of firming prices. US Inflation data came in at a whopping 0.2% year over year for October (Consumer Price Index, CPI) … So where is the inflation pressure? Core CPI,…
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Ready, Set, Shop!

Consumption is up and the holiday season is underway! Now let us hope the markets follow suit… Consumption Conundrum Good news, 3rd quarter GDP was revised up to 2.1% from 1.5%. One of the reasons sighted was consumer spending increasing by 3.0%. Another major factor was inventory build-up, often times…
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ECB vs FRB

Markets received a double dose of bad news on Thursday. The reaction was bad, but the Friday bounce back was epic! Central Banks On Thursday there was news of the European Central Bank (ECB) loosen monetary policy further.  This would typically be information that would be received positively, however it…
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Really, Oil!

Oil prices fell along with the broad markets as concerns over the global economic slowdown persisted. Oil Markets were resilient a week ago Friday in response to OPEC announcing an increase in oil production. That did not prove to be the case as the week turned over and the commodity…
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