Posts Categorized: MARKET THOUGHTS

Trade Wars: Episode 764 | March 16, 2018

Markets retreated last week as volatility has continued to be the theme. Will trade wars continue to dominate the market landscape? The current environment is fraught with uncertainty and the markets do not tend to respond well to that. They loved tax reform, for example, as it increased margins for…
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Tariff This! | March 9, 2018

The markets ran the gamut last week. What caused the swings and led to being up 3% on the week?   Politics as usual  The week started much like the prior week had ended, with the talk of tariffs–Set to be 25% for imported steel and 10% for imported aluminum. We also saw the departure of Gary Cohen from the Administration. This news sent the markets south. Word…
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The Volatility Pendulum | March 2, 2018

Markets shed 2% last week as the pendulum swung back towards correction. What is next for the markets? The pullback appeared to be an immediate response to concerns over the potential of a trade war. President Trump announced tariffs on imported Steel and Aluminum, 25% and 10% respectively. This was…
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Rates and Stocks | February 23, 2018

Markets grew at a humble rate last week and volatility has come back down. As we look ahead to the next growth cycle, interest rates will likely play a pivotal role for equities. US equities have surged over the last 2 years as we have experienced a low level of…
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What Goes Down Must Go Up! | February 16, 2018

In recent weeks, volatility has been turned on its head. Where will it go from here? 2017 saw incredibly low volatility. The VIX, The Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) main measure of volatility, ranged between 9.14 and 16.17 for the year. The height of volatility came in August as…
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A Path Forward | February 9, 2018

Markets tumbled an additional 5.16% last week; the real question is, where can the opportunities be found? In our most recent growth cycle, we experienced strengthening global growth with anemic inflation. This fostered an environment of increased corporate spending and accelerating growth (an environment that proves to be very favorable…
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Free Fall | February 2, 2018

Last week markets reacted strongly to the unemployment report, but why and will the fall continue? The jobs report carried plenty of good data for January. Non-farm payrolls grew by 200K, the participation rate remained unchanged, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, and wage growth came in at 2.9%…
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Peeling Back GDP | January 26, 2018

GDP came in at a lackluster 2.6% for the 4th Quarter, missing expectations of a 2.9% growth rate. Markets did not react as you would expect, but why? GDP was expected to be a strong 2.9% for the 4th Quarter–rounding out a year of accelerating growth.  Instead we got 2.6%…
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Blind Bull Part 2 | January 19, 2018

The markets have grown 5.11% year to date, and this last week helped that along. Economic data, however, did not support the surge. Housing for December was not promising as new housing starts fell 107K. The move, if it proves to be longer term, could be bad for construction employment….
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Rates on the Rise | January 12, 2018

Equities have surged while bonds have retreated. The rate environment has people wondering if “low for long” has finally come to an end. Globally, there seems to be a synchronization in central banker sentiment. 2018 could very well be the year they lean away from accommodation. The US had already…
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