Posts Categorized: MARKET THOUGHTS

All Talk, No Action | April 28, 2017

[1] Everyone seems bullish on our economy when you look at confidence and sentiment data. This would typically be a great indication of forward looking consumption, but what does it mean in our current environment? Stock markets are near all-time highs and corporate earnings have rebounded strongly in the last…
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Volatility Shift | April 21, 2017

Over the last few weeks we have seen volatility increase, but not all of it has been bad. There was a period of 109 days where the market did not move 1% in either direction. There were many days where it did not move even .5%. However, in the last…
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The Hope Trade | April 14, 2017

Over the last two quarters the S&P 500 has grown by 8.23%. Call it what you will, the Trump Bump, or the reflation trade… I ‘m going to call it the hope trade. Earnings had gone through a year and a half long drought leading into the third quarter earnings…
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Pretty Lights | March 31, 2017

Just a week ago it appeared the sky was falling on the reflation trade. As if completely forgetting what happened, the market has since firmed, the dollar has strengthened, and there seems to be indifference to economic risks. Can it last? With the AHCA behind us, the attention now turns…
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The Devil in the Details

Much as expected the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) raised rates last week. So, why did the markets rally and longer term rates fall on the news? Naturally, you would expect markets to retreat as the FRB tightens monetary policy. It usually signals the end of loose consumer spending and less…
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The Party is Over!

Markets have blown through all time highs. Economic activity is running strong. Real Estate is on a seemingly unstoppable growth trajectory. So, how can the party end??? The markets celebrated the eighth anniversary of the bottom of the financial crisis last Thursday, the 9th. For much of those eight years…
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Reflation Tailwind

The “reflation” trade has dominated headlines as of late. Headlines, however, do not create profits. Is there substance to the economic tailwind currently in place? US Data ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at a strong 57.7 (over 50 indicates expansionary). Conference Board Consumer Confidence came in at 114.8, the highest…
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Breaking Records!

Records are meant to be broken and last week the Dow Jones matched a record not seen since 1992. Could this positive run spell the end of the current rally? This was the first time since 1992 that the Dow Jones closed at record highs for 11 straight days. Economic…
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Return of the Hawks

President Trump has stolen much of investors’ attention, however, Federal Reserve Board (FRB) activity still matters immensely. Especially if their actions are unexpected…   US Data Retail sales were up .6% in January and December’s figures were revised up[1]. Strong retail sales for January may reflect the warmer than expected…
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