False Hope? | Market Thoughts | September 14, 2018

Favorable data, favorable returns… Globally markets expanded last week giving us reason to be happy. Is it a false hope?

Consumer confidence heading into the 4th quarter is the highest it has been since March, which led into a quarter where GDP did 4.2%. Make no mistake our confidence translates to 70% of GDP in the way of consumer spending. So, this news should bode well for Q4 GDP.

Friday brought news that tariffs which were cleared the prior week were going to acted upon. Many had hoped that since no action had been taken on Thursday the 6th,   a bullet had been dodged and negotiations could commence–especially after it was announced that negotiations were back on between Beijing and Washington on Wednesday.

Turkey raised rates to combat inflation in spite of what their president wanted; this move showed their independence while also calming concerns of a crisis in the Lira. They increased their weekly repo rate to 24% from 17.75% in order to fight off 18% current inflation!

In all, this was a week full of positive information that indicate future growth. In recent months, that would typically mean that next week brings volatility. This may come to fruition with the late Friday announcement of $200B in tariffs. Look for Asian markets to react to this early next week.

 

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