 | AUTHOR: Jason Roque, CFP®, APMA®, AWMA® TITLE: Investment Adviser Rep – CCO TAGS: S&P 500, NASDAQ, Retail Sales, Housing, Earnings, Tech |
Markets sold consistently across the week. Is there more red to expect in coming weeks?
Monday S&P 500 1.20% | NASDAQ 1.79%
Happy Tax Day! Retail sales expanded more than expected in March. Three major companies reported earnings, all three met expectations, all of which were financials. This was not surprising as financials usually head up earnings season. They also give us a good indication of how earnings season should go. Retail sales, however, took center stage as a strong consumer reduces the need for Federal Reserve Board (FRB) rate cuts. This caused an outsized move downward as investors anticipate less stimulus for 2024.
Tuesday S&P 500 0.21% | NASDAQ 0.12%
Housing data for March came in weaker than market expectation. Ten major companies reported earnings, with two missing expectations. Although mild, the losses continued. FRB Chair Powell indicated that inflation’s recent strength does not give the board confidence to start easing policy.
Wednesday S&P 500 0.58% | NASDAQ 1.15%
11 major companies reported earnings on the day, with three missing expectations. Focus was squarely on earnings as there was little economic data on the day. Tech stocks took a hit as AI chip orders for a specific company did not meet expectations. As would be expected this hit the tech heavy NASDAQ harder than the S&P 500.
Thursday S&P 500 0.22% | NASDAQ 0.52%
Initial unemployment claims remain benign. Existing home sales also slowed in March. 11 major companies reported earnings on the day, with one missing expectations. Markets were down for the day, but in a less dramatic fashion. Robust employment data typically is not favorable information when hoping for an FRB rate cut (as investors are).
Friday S&P 500 0.88% | NASDAQ 2.05%
Six major companies reported earnings on the day, with one missing expectations. NASDAQ led the way lower as Tech and communications got hit hardest. The best performers on the day were defensives, like utilities, healthcare, staples, and also financials.
Conclusion S&P 500 3.05% | NASDAQ 5.52%
The week was bloody. There was not a single up day for the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ Composite. The moves were not founded in fundamental data, as earnings did well. Some forward guidance shows warning of slowing revenues throughout the year, but that is normal for the last two years. Economic data, which signals the economy is doing well, has actually pushed stocks lower. The stronger the economy, the less likely the FRB is to act in reducing rates. The sell-off has extended to approximately 6%. It may take a breather in the coming days but expect that we are not done.
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The bears are firmly in control right now. Should it last or is there hope on the horizon?
Monday S&P 500 0.69% | NASDAQ 0.76%
The start of the week was a trading day of uncertainty. Markets ebbed and flowed, finally finding a footing late in the day. Markets ended up rising but not in a convincing fashion given last week’s sell-off. Anticipation is building towards Wednesday’s Federal Reserve Board Press conference.
Tuesday S&P 500 1.13% | NASDAQ 0.95%
Markets opened in the red and stayed in the red all day. The economic data on the day was positive which of course led to a negative market. Housing starts rose by 12% in August. More robust new home data actually signals a stronger buyer than was expected. The concern reinforces the idea that the FRB has to go further than they already have to create demand destruction.
Wednesday S&P 500 1.71% | NASDAQ 1.79%
The FRB delivered a 0.75% rate increase. They have two meetings left for the year and they anticipate 0.75% in November and 0.50% in December. The unemployment and inflation data would have to soften substantially for a milder move.
Thursday S&P 500 0.84% | NASDAQ 1.37%
Markets continued their retreat post the FRB rate hike on Wednesday. Interest rates continued to climb in anticipation of 4.5% by year end. Interest rates and prices move in opposite directions.
Friday S&P 500 1.72% | NASDAQ 1.80%
The fall on Friday was worse than its headline number represents. The S&P closed at 3,693.23, however it reached a low of 3,649.16. This is a break of the support level of 3,666.77, which was the close on June 16th. The fact that markets did not stay below support into the close is not necessarily encouraging. It will likely be surpassed within the next few trading sessions.
Conclusion S&P 500 4.65% | NASDAQ 5.07%
We have been told that this is not a recession given the strength of the consumer. The FRB delivered another blow on Wednesday to the consumer by raising rates to 3.25%, moving into restrictive territory. The move should help to quell demand, but it is not the last. 1.25% is still expected before year end, bringing us to 4.5%. The market’s behavior is telling us that if we are not in a recession, that we will be soon. Our current recessionary behavior is specifically not the depth with which markets have fallen; rather, the bear market rally with a retest of prior lows following. This is a behavior that is typical of recessionary environments. This means that we should see several bear market rallies along the way. It could come from corporate earnings, political transitions in November, or even the vaunted Santa Claus rally. Look for growth, but with subsequent pull backs.
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Your interest in our articles helps us reach more people. To show your appreciation for this post, please “like” the article on one of the links below:
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If you would like to receive this weekly article and other timely information follow us, here.
Always remember that while this is a week in review, this does not trigger or relate to trading activity on your account with Financial Future Services. Broad diversification across several asset classes with a long-term holding strategy is the best strategy in any market environment.
Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.