Market moves across the month were to the south. Fixed income markets seemed to have a more drastic message on the monitor than that of equities.
Fixed Income: 2-Yr Treas Yield 4.16% | 10-Yr Treas. Yield 4.28%
Bond markets went for a reversal ride in October. After several months of falling rates, we began to see a pullback in the bond market as interest rates rose. The 2-year treasury rose 0.55%, while the 10-year treasury rose 0.54%. The good news is that while rising, the rates did not invert again. The long picture remains intact. We are still in an elevated rate environment with them more likely to drift south rather than north. This move may have been the result of predictions for a potential structure that would mean tariffs. This would reflect a higher inflation potential which would signal a slower path in future rate cuts. Additional good news is that while rates from 6 months on rose, shorter duration rates continued to fall. This bodes well for the normalization of the entire curve.
Equities: Dow Jones 1.34% | S&P 500 0.99% | NASDAQ 0.52%
While it was a down month for equites, the overall move south was not bad for the month. From the top of the market for the S&P 500 (10/18/2024) to the end of the month logged a 2.83%. This proved to be a mild lead up to the beginning of November. The nice part is that while a correction has not materialized, earnings season did, bringing the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 back down to 21.19.
Throughout the month utility stock did well until the last week of the month. A shifting towards Financial and consumer discretionary was underway. Neither of which are surprising given interest rates (favoring financials) and the fact that we are in the fourth quarter… I like to say, ‘Americans spend money they do not have on things they do not need’, AKA: holiday season!
Conclusion
Equities pulled back less than was indicative of the rate move on the bond market. The move there signaled more concern about higher rates for longer than equities chose to price in. The shift in rates seemed like a long-term change in projection, while short rates seemed anchored to FRB actions. The longer rage rates often can be equated to long range GDP expectations. If the view is that we would have stronger forward GDP in 5 years, then we see a stronger 5-year rate.
A Look Ahead…
Market responses in October could have been far more drastic than they were. We should feel fortunate that we got the October that we did. This still leaves a correction (a market fall of 10% to 19%) unattended to. The last one ended 10/27/2023. While stretched P/E’s from over the summer have become more reasonable, that’s been due to strong earnings. Those may continue in the short run, but moving into 2025 those might be harder to come by. It may very well cause a correction in the first half of the year.
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Markets were lower for the holiday shortened week. Did the daily moves tell us anything about the next month?
Monday S&P 500 null% | NASDAQ null%
Happy Memorial Day!
Tuesday S&P 500 0.63% | NASDAQ 0.42%
On the final day of trading for May, investors decided to take markets lower. Oil was a major driver on the day. An EU oil embargo agreement made futures jump. This means more inflation, and more risk of Federal Reserve Board (FRB) rate increases.
Wednesday S&P 500 0.76% | NASDAQ 0.73%
Better economic data led to a selloff in equities. Stronger manufacturing and job opening data caused stress on the market. This is an indication that investors see the FRB being able to be more aggressive. So, once again, more good news has a bad news effect for markets.
Thursday S&P 500 1.84% | NASDAQ 2.69%
OPEC announced they will increase production at a faster pace than expected. They didn’t necessarily increase overall output production, but just when they would reach the levels previously indicated. More oil production should lead to softer prices at the pump. That gave relief to inflation concerns which moved markets broadly higher.
Friday S&P 500 1.64% | NASDAQ 2.47%
Happy Jobs Friday! Good news equals bad news once again as the Jobs report did not disappoint. An internal TESLA email was leaked, Elon Musk indicated a hiring freeze for the company due to economic uncertainty. This backs up a concern voiced by Jamie Dimon earlier in the week regarding a hurricane brewing in the near future.
Conclusion S&P 500 1.20% | NASDAQ 0.98%
After a stellar week, markets fell flat this last week. The ebbs and flows from the market were far calmer than they have been over the last two weeks. This is a big deal as data that prompted moves were no less inflammatory but yielded a calmer response. This should yield growth over the coming weeks should volatility remain at its current level.
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Always remember that while this is a week in review, this does not trigger or relate to trading activity on your account with Financial Future Services. Broad diversification across several asset classes with a long-term holding strategy is the best strategy in any market environment.
Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.