11|10|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | Nov. 7, 2025
Indicators show ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.1 (Sep) to 48.7 (Oct) contracting for the eighth consecutive month while Non-Manufacturing (Services) PMI climbed from 50.0 (Sep) to 52.4 (Oct)....
11|03|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | October 31, 2025
Consumer Confidence: Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence fell for the third consecutive month, decreasing from 95.6 (Sep) to 94.6 (Oct). Will consumers’ behavior reflect their sentiment, or will spending...
10|27|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | October 24, 2025
Consumer Goods & Materials: Inflation pressures eased slightly in September as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3%, below the 0.4% forecast. The annual inflation rate ticked up to...
10|20|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | October 17, 2025
Yield Curve: The yield curve steepened slightly this week. The 2-year Treasury slipped from 3.52% to 3.46%, while the benchmark 10-year eased from 4.05% to 4.02%, marking its lowest...
10|14|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | October 10, 2025
S&P 500: With few major economic releases to guide markets, the S&P 500 slipped 163.28 points to close at 6,552.51 (up 11.41% YTD). Volatility was largely unchanged, with the...
10|06|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | October 3, 2025
Unemployment: Jobs data were incomplete this week due to the government shutdown. The Nonfarm payrolls report (Sep) wasn’t released on Friday as the result of impacts at Bureau of...
09|29|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | September 26, 2025
Consumer Goods & Materials: Core PCE Price Index (PCE) rose 0.2% (MoM)(Aug), matching expectations. On a year-over-year basis, inflation held steady at 2.9% (Aug). The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge...
09|22|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | September 19, 2025
Retail Sales: Retail Sales were up 0.6% (MoM)(Aug), increasing for the third consecutive month and better than expected. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for...
09|08|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | September 5, 2025
Unemployment: Jobs were front and center this week, with several indicators pointing to a softer labor market. Nonfarm Payrolls slowed, falling from 79K (July) to 22K (Aug). JOLTS Job...
09|02|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | August 29, 2025
Consumer Goods & Materials: Core PCE Price Index rose 0.3% (MoM)(Jul) for the 2nd month in a row. The annual measure ticked up from 2.8% (Jun) to 2.9% (Jul)....