The monitor flashed quite a bit of red last month. But the market was seemingly undeterred and pushed higher anyway. Should this continue?
Fixed Income: 2-Yr Treas Yield 3.91% | 10-Yr Treas. Yield 3.91%
The bond markets saw volatility in August as questions mounted about an impromptu rate-cut by the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB). The most meaningful fall came at the beginning of the month. The perceived weakness in jobs data prompted a move to safety as expectations increased for a rate cut. At the time, people were calling for 0.50% before the September meeting. Cooler heads prevailed and the market is now expecting a 0.25% cut in September. The more impressive data point over the last month was the parody reached on the last trading day of August. This was the first time the two closed at parity since July 5th, 2022! It is still to be determined if rate normalization (higher rates on longer dated fixed income) will prevail. It is a good sign that the anticipated rate cuts are making a large enough impact for us to reach parity.
Equities: Dow Jones 1.76% | S&P 500 2.28% | NASDAQ 0.65%
The market moves that led to a strong month for fixed income signaled weakness for the equity markets. The Nasdaq lost almost four percent in the first week of the month to spend the next two weeks crawling out of that hole. The last week of the month saw the index continue to falter. Strong earnings from bellwether Nvidia (NVDA) was not enough to bolster confidence. Investors seemed to come to the realization that the FRB will likely take a slow methodical path towards rate reductions. That path did not buoy equity markets. In a retracement of the July trades, other major market categories failed to capitalize on weaker large caps:
S&P 400 (Mid Cap Index): 0.21%
Russell 2000 (Small Cap Index): 1.59%
Conclusion
It was, in all, a good month… That’s for two reasons, 1) fixed income made up ground that equities lost, 2) the spread between the 2-yr treasury and the 10-yr treasury reached parity. Something of a signal that the soft landing the FRB is looking for has been achieved. Generally, a recession (that would be evident by this point) would have caused a normalization of the curve.
A Look Ahead…
We see two key reasons to expect further volatility in equity markets during the next month:
- The 22.40 price to earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 will need to narrow further before markets can start a real rally.
- September is notoriously the worst month of the year for equities:
- 2023: 5.35%
- 2022: 8.92%
- 2021: 4.89%
- 2020: 4.12%
- 2019: 2.32%
Some logic would point to the high frequency in recent years being a signal that volatility should weaken in September. I find that unlikely given the elevated P/E referenced.
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Markets moved north last week, but what does recent history tell us we should expect in response?
Monday S&P 500 0.84% | NASDAQ 0.81%
The week opened with the S&P 500 1% in the green but faded through the afternoon hours. Apple (AAPL) announced that they will be slowing their hiring for the remainder of this year and 2023. This is a warning signal for what may be to come for other companies.
Tuesday S&P 500 2.73% | NASDAQ 3.09%
A wave of earnings released on Tuesday buoyed the markets. The NASDAQ outpaced the S&P for growth as major communications company earnings came into focus.
Wednesday S&P 500 0.59% | NASDAQ 1.58%
Growth leadership continued on Wednesday. Fears of a recession have stoked larger flames around yields not rising as far as originally thought. A recession would pressure the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) to be more passive.
Thursday S&P 500 0.99% | NASDAQ 1.36%
Markets performed in the green for the day, however fixed income havens performed well. This is an underlying signal of conservativeness within a bear market rally. Bonds rallied on what appeared to be recession fears, while stocks performed well on second quarter earnings data.
Friday S&P 500 0.92% | NASDAQ 1.86%
Manufacturing data beat expectations, however, services data slipped into contractionary territory unexpectedly for June. Services make up the vast majority of our economy. Investors moved in a risk off manner as a result. NASDAQ stocks, which led the way throughout the week, led the march lower.
Conclusion S&P 500 2.55% | NASDAQ 3.33%
Friday’s negativity was not enough to dampen all the growth from the week. The NASDAQ led the way, rising more than 3%. This has now turned into a see-saw market; one week up, the next down. As of late, the downs have not been as deep. The earnings calendar is heavy this week but additionally, the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) is meeting. That will be watched closely as a 0.75% hike is expected.
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Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.