02|10|2026
Leading Indicator Watch | February 6, 2026
Unemployment: Jobs data were front and center this week. Initial Jobless Claims jumped from 209K to 231K. Continuing Jobless Claims rose from 1,819K to 1,844K. JOLTS Job Openings dropped...
01|26|2026
Leading Indicator Watch | January 23, 2026
GDP: Economic Growth was front and center this week as Gross Domestic Product (GDP)(Q3) exceeded expectations. It rose by 4.4%, compared to the forecast of 4.3%. Be sure to...
01|13|2026
Leading Indicator Watch | January 09, 2026
Unemployment: Jobs were front and center this week. Nonfarm Payrolls showed an increase of only 50K jobs (Dec), missing the forecast. JOLTS Job Openings fell from 7.449M (Oct) to...
12|22|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | December 19, 2025
Unemployment: Jobs data took center stage last week with the release of both October and November Nonfarm Payroll reports. Payrolls fell by 105K (Oct), then rebounded modestly with a...
12|08|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | December 5, 2025
Manufacturing & Services: ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped from 48.7 (Oct) to 48.2 (Nov), marking a ninth straight month of contraction. Meanwhile, Services PMI inched up from 52.4 to 52.6,...
11|24|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | November 21, 2025
Unemployment: Jobs data were mixed last week, with the delayed release of the September report yielding an increase in Nonfarm Payrolls from -4K (Aug) to 119K (Sep). The Unemployment...
11|11|2025
One Basket | Nov. 7, 2025 | Market Thoughts
Markets fell as big earnings reports hinted at an overvalued equity market. Was this week a reminder to not have all your eggs in one basket? Monday S&P 500...
11|10|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | Nov. 7, 2025
Indicators show ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.1 (Sep) to 48.7 (Oct) contracting for the eighth consecutive month while Non-Manufacturing (Services) PMI climbed from 50.0 (Sep) to 52.4 (Oct)....
10|27|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | October 24, 2025
Consumer Goods & Materials: Inflation pressures eased slightly in September as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3%, below the 0.4% forecast. The annual inflation rate ticked up to...
10|20|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | October 17, 2025
Yield Curve: The yield curve steepened slightly this week. The 2-year Treasury slipped from 3.52% to 3.46%, while the benchmark 10-year eased from 4.05% to 4.02%, marking its lowest...