12|29|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | December 26, 2025
M2 Money Stock: The money supply held steady at $22.30T (Nov), now roughly 72% of current GDP. Meanwhile, advance GDP growth accelerated from 3.8% in Q2 to 4.3% in...
12|23|2025
A Tale of Two Halves | December 19, 2025
The week was a tale of two halves. The first half was cautious and the second half was fruitful, which will win out? Monday S&P 500 0.16% | NASDAQ...
12|22|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | December 19, 2025
Unemployment: Jobs data took center stage last week with the release of both October and November Nonfarm Payroll reports. Payrolls fell by 105K (Oct), then rebounded modestly with a...
12|15|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | December 12, 2025
Unemployment: Jobs data were mixed last week. Initial Jobless Claims jumped from 192K to 236K. Continuing Jobless Claims dropped from 1,937K to 1,838K. JOLTS Job Openings inched higher, increasing...
12|08|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | December 5, 2025
Manufacturing & Services: ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped from 48.7 (Oct) to 48.2 (Nov), marking a ninth straight month of contraction. Meanwhile, Services PMI inched up from 52.4 to 52.6,...
12|01|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | November 28, 2025
Retail Sales: The delayed September Retail Sales report showed an increase of only 0.2% (MoM), which was less than expected following a 0.6% rise in August. It is the...
11|24|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | November 21, 2025
Unemployment: Jobs data were mixed last week, with the delayed release of the September report yielding an increase in Nonfarm Payrolls from -4K (Aug) to 119K (Sep). The Unemployment...
10|06|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | October 3, 2025
Unemployment: Jobs data were incomplete this week due to the government shutdown. The Nonfarm payrolls report (Sep) wasn’t released on Friday as the result of impacts at Bureau of...
09|29|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | September 26, 2025
Consumer Goods & Materials: Core PCE Price Index (PCE) rose 0.2% (MoM)(Aug), matching expectations. On a year-over-year basis, inflation held steady at 2.9% (Aug). The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge...
09|22|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | September 19, 2025
Retail Sales: Retail Sales were up 0.6% (MoM)(Aug), increasing for the third consecutive month and better than expected. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for...