06|30|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | June 27, 2025
Consumer Goods & Materials: Core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% (MoM)(May), with the annual reading increasing from 2.6% (Apr) to 2.7% (May). Both figures...
06|02|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | May 30, 2025
Consumer Goods & Materials: Core PCE Price Index settled at 2.5% (YoY)(Apr), the lowest reading since 2021 for the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The monthly measurement remained...
05|05|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | May 2, 2025
Unemployment: Jobs data were mixed this week. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 177,000 (Apr), exceeding the 138,000 forecasted. However, JOLTS job openings fell from 7.480M (Feb) to 7.192M (Mar), missing...
03|03|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | February 28, 2025
Consumer Goods & Materials: The Core PCE Price Index (Jan) (MoM) rose 0.3%, as expected. The index increased by 2.6% YoY, the lowest since last July. Core PCE, which...
10|28|2024
Leading Indicator Watch | October 25, 2024
Yield Curve: 2-year yields finished higher this week, rising from 3.95% to 4.11%. 10-year yields also climbed from 4.08% to 4.25%, the highest level since July. Prices & rates...
09|30|2024
Leading Indicator Watch | September 27, 2024
Consumer Goods & Materials: The core PCE price index (less food and energy) rose 0.1% (MoM (Aug), which was slightly lower than expected. Year-over-year, the index rose 2.7% (Aug)....
09|03|2024
Leading Indicator Watch | August 30, 2024
Consumer Goods & Materials: The PCE Price index (YoY) (Jul) stayed steady at 2.5%, and Core PCE (YoY) (Jul) also remained unchanged at 2.6%. Both numbers came in just...
07|29|2024
Leading Indicator Watch | July 26, 2024
Consumer Goods & Materials: The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index (MoM)(Jun) increased slightly from 0.1 to 0.2%, meeting expectations. The YoY (Jun) reading held firm at 2.5%....
06|03|2024
Leading Indicator Watch | May 31, 2024
The money supply, including time deposits, rose $26B to $20.867T (Apr) which reflects cash accumulating in money market funds with their attractive yields. Money supply is running 73.8% of...