Last week the April policy meeting minutes for the FRB came out and indicated a hold pattern on raising rates. Raising rates at this point is absolutely inappropriate as monetary easing around the globe has weakened the US’s ability to compete. That being said the likelihood of the fed being too easy on rates increases with each passing meeting that the language does not firm.

Oil prices over the last 6 months have contributed to the soft inflation data. To be noted, inflation is gauged in a year over year fashion. Even if prices stay at their current levels, after December the inflation numbers will begin to look much stronger than they currently do. Partially due to the heavy out performance of the job markets in recent month.

All that said, Good luck chairperson Yellen, you have an uphill battle to climb in deed!

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