There was an onslaught of data last week, which led to gains. Should more be expected with the coming earnings season?
Monday S&P 500 0.27%| NASDAQ 1.09%
ISM Manufacturing unexpectedly slipped and remains in contractionary territory. The weaker economic data would typically signal lower rates as rate cut expectations would increase. To the contrary, 10-year treasuries rose on the day. In the face of weak economic data, the start of the quarter brought optimism towards the next three months.
Tuesday S&P 500 0.62% | NASDAQ .84%
JOLTs job openings rose more than expected to 8.14M openings. For perspective, there were 6.6M unemployed as of the May report. The strong jobs data did not deter markets, though; this may be because the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Chair, J. Powell, spoke on the day. He indicated that progress is being made towards their inflation target. This is the ‘secret sauce’ needed to justify future rate cuts.
Wednesday S&P 500 0.51% | NASDAQ 0.88%
Initial jobless claims rose for the week to 238K from 234K; the level remains elevated, albeit from all-time lows. Factory orders unexpectedly slipped into the negative on the month. Additionally, ISM Services unexpectedly slipped into contractionary territory. This is all bad news for economic production, so why did the markets rise? Interest rates fell as this data increases the likelihood that the FRB will lower rates sooner than expected. The heightened odds are now calling for a .25% cut in September and December, according to CME FedWatch.
Thursday S&P 500 -% | NASDAQ -%
Happy Independence Day!
Friday S&P 500 0.54% | NASDAQ 0.90%
Happy Jobs Friday! The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, and participation rose to 62.6% from 62.5%, all for June. The unemployment rate went up even though we added 206K jobs??? Participation went up so, with more people in the market, the rate can go up even as jobs are added. This is a positive signal that workers are returning to the work force. The rise on equity markets, however, was on hopes that economic weakness would be enough for an FRB rate cut.
Conclusion S&P 500 1.95% | NASDAQ 3.55%
This was a busy week for economic data, especially for a holiday shortened week. We got weaker Jobs, manufacturing, Services, and Factory orders. The weakness led to stronger markets on hopes the FRB will cut rates BEFORE a recession can materialize. The coming week starts second quarter earnings. Valuations are stretched (S&P 500 P/E: 28.94) and economic production is weak, very little should be expected from this season. This could be the start of volatility that would lead into the Autumn.
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The route of the NASDAQ picked up steam last week. What does this mean for broad markets?
Monday
Markets rebounded strongly on Monday, led by the Nasdaq that was so sorely bruised last week. The Nasdaq rose 3.01% while the S&P 500 added 2.38% on the decidedly bullish day. Leading the way were financials, technology, and industrials.
Tuesday
The day started in the red. The sell trend continued to pick up steam additional losses persisted. This happened as interest rates continued their march higher.
Wednesday
The reflation/inflation trade gathered steam on Wednesday as markets sold off strong. The S&P 500 lost 1.32% and the NASDAQ fell 2.7%. The tech sell-off strengthens as yields rise. The rise could also pose a concern for the feverish housing market as mortgage rates rise.
Thursday
The day started very mundane and in the green. That faded quickly after Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Chair Powell spoke. He said they will not raise rates any time soon, however, no potential solutions for current rate issues were given. Markets dove and interest rates rose on the lack of guidance from the FRB. Investors at this time seem to be betting against the FRB’s statements which is a dangerous stance to take. The assumption is that inflation will be meaningful enough that the FRB will react sooner than they want.
Friday
Markets started the day in the green only to fade quickly to be down as much as 1.2% for the S&P 500. Mid-morning however everything (and I mean everything) came surging back. The mid-morning low put the NASDAQ squarely in correction territory (a pull back of 10% or more). It had fallen nearly 12% from its high in February. The NASDAQ ended up more that 1.5% while the S&P 500 led the way, up almost 2%.
Conclusion
The S&P 500 rose 0.81% on the week. This was its first positive week in the last three. Recent market weakness should be indicative of a correction rather than a prolonged downturn for several reasons. Manufacturing and services are both in expansionary territory. Jobs are growing at a pace quicker than expected. Vaccinations are moving ahead of schedule. The FRB is remaining very accommodative. Additional stimulus is coming sooner than later. All the turmoil has been in fear that growth is going to be TOO strong, TOO fast, causing inflation. The fear being that it will cause corporations to miss elevated growth expectations on a higher debt burden. That said, the route of the NASDAQ is occurring on positive economic expectations, which should help lead the markets higher.
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Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.