There was an onslaught of data last week, which led to gains. Should more be expected with the coming earnings season?
Monday S&P 500 0.27%| NASDAQ 1.09%
ISM Manufacturing unexpectedly slipped and remains in contractionary territory. The weaker economic data would typically signal lower rates as rate cut expectations would increase. To the contrary, 10-year treasuries rose on the day. In the face of weak economic data, the start of the quarter brought optimism towards the next three months.
Tuesday S&P 500 0.62% | NASDAQ .84%
JOLTs job openings rose more than expected to 8.14M openings. For perspective, there were 6.6M unemployed as of the May report. The strong jobs data did not deter markets, though; this may be because the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Chair, J. Powell, spoke on the day. He indicated that progress is being made towards their inflation target. This is the ‘secret sauce’ needed to justify future rate cuts.
Wednesday S&P 500 0.51% | NASDAQ 0.88%
Initial jobless claims rose for the week to 238K from 234K; the level remains elevated, albeit from all-time lows. Factory orders unexpectedly slipped into the negative on the month. Additionally, ISM Services unexpectedly slipped into contractionary territory. This is all bad news for economic production, so why did the markets rise? Interest rates fell as this data increases the likelihood that the FRB will lower rates sooner than expected. The heightened odds are now calling for a .25% cut in September and December, according to CME FedWatch.
Thursday S&P 500 -% | NASDAQ -%
Happy Independence Day!
Friday S&P 500 0.54% | NASDAQ 0.90%
Happy Jobs Friday! The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, and participation rose to 62.6% from 62.5%, all for June. The unemployment rate went up even though we added 206K jobs??? Participation went up so, with more people in the market, the rate can go up even as jobs are added. This is a positive signal that workers are returning to the work force. The rise on equity markets, however, was on hopes that economic weakness would be enough for an FRB rate cut.
Conclusion S&P 500 1.95% | NASDAQ 3.55%
This was a busy week for economic data, especially for a holiday shortened week. We got weaker Jobs, manufacturing, Services, and Factory orders. The weakness led to stronger markets on hopes the FRB will cut rates BEFORE a recession can materialize. The coming week starts second quarter earnings. Valuations are stretched (S&P 500 P/E: 28.94) and economic production is weak, very little should be expected from this season. This could be the start of volatility that would lead into the Autumn.
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Nothing to see here. Markets jumped out to open the week and then did a whole lot of nothing…
Monday
The Santa Claus rally got under way Monday morning. There were hundreds of Christmas eve flights cancelled due to Omicron. These should have led to dampened investor moods as it could signal the potential for a shutdown. They did not; the S&P climbed more the 1% to open the week.
Tuesday
The rally from Monday did not sell off, but it also did not advance. The trade activity on Tuesday was decidedly sideways as the S&P 500 lost 0.1%. This came as trading volume continued to be light amidst the holidays.
Wednesday
Trade was boring again on Wednesday as markets rose marginally. The S&P 500 rose a whopping 0.11%. Again, trading volumes were light, and the news feed was practically non-existent.
Thursday
Markets soared to open the week and made the remainder of the week boring as markets pretty much remained little changed on Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 0.28%.
Friday
The continued trend of light trading persisted. We expect this to change next week as traders get back to work. Movement was narrow across the day with the S&P 500 little changed on the day.
Conclusion
The opening day of the week did not set the tone for the week, but it did set the desired rise. This was evident by the minimal move throughout the remainder of the week. Granted, news was light. However, movement would have been more pronounced had there been more news to trade on. The S&P 500 ended up gaining 0.68% for the week and 26.89% for the year.
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Always remember that while this is a week in review, this does not trigger or relate to trading activity on your account with Financial Future Services. Broad diversification across several asset classes with a long-term holding strategy is the best strategy in any market environment.
Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.