02|01|2022

The Inside Story | January 28, 2022

Markets grew for the week for the first time in a month. Is it a reason to celebrate or a breather in the pullback?

Monday                      S&P 500 0.87% | NASDAQ 1.11%

Nine major companies reported earnings, with two missing expectations. Equities jumped to open the week. Outside of earnings data there was not much to support the rally. It was likely a jump on three consecutive weeks of down market, creating better by opportunities.

Tuesday                       S&P 500 1.20% | NASDAQ 1.59%

35 major companies reported earnings, with five missing expectations. Housing data came in better than expected. The heavy earnings data drove markets higher on Tuesday, pun intended. GM (GM) and Tesla (TSLA) were among reporters that helped propel markets.

Wednesday                 S&P 500 0.02% | NASDAQ 0.10%

40 major companies reported earnings, with six missing expectations. Core durable goods orders came in lighter than expected. Strong earnings data was counter-balanced by higher rate expectations. This left markets fairly unchanged.

Thursday                     S&P 500 0.46% | NASDAQ 0.64%

60 major companies reported earnings, with 13 missing expectations. GDP grew at a much slower pace than expected(1.6% vs 2.5%). Unemployment data continued to show strength. GDP and forward guidance from Meta (META) spooked markets early. They managed to climb halfway out of the hole that was dug as the earnings flowed in throughout the day.

Friday                          S&P 500 1.02% | NASDAQ 2.03%

13 major companies reported earnings, with five missing expectations. Consumer sentiment softened in April. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) held steady at 2.8% in March. This is the Federal Reserve Board’s (FRB) preferred gauge of inflation. Between PCE data and earnings from Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) markets surged on the day.

Conclusion                  S&P 500 2.67% | NASDAQ 4.23%

The markets experienced a strong bounce back this last week in comparison to the last three weeks. Do not be fooled. Markets have a way to go to recapture highs as the growth did not even recover from the prior week. This indicates that there is room for markets to continue the run up as earnings season wears on. There are major hurdles this coming week with the FRB meeting, Jobs data, and Apple (AAPL) reports earnings.

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The S&P 500 and volatility were little changed week over week. The inside story, however, was far more interesting!

Monday

What. A. Monday… Markets ended the day higher. The reason for excitement is that at one point, the S&P 500 was down as much as 3%. It ended the day up 0.63%! The 3% fall moved the S&P 500 into correction territory and immediately caught a bid. Its ability to persist will remain to be seen as we get the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) meeting results later this week.

Tuesday

It was almost déjà vu on Tuesday. Markets slumped early and attempted a comeback. That comeback stalled late in the afternoon with the S&P 500 losing more than 0.5% on the day. Much of the moves were continued speculation over the FRB meeting that will end on Wednesday.

Wednesday

The FRB did not disappoint. They have been very transparent about their intent to raise rates soon, soon is likely March. Additionally, they have stated that they will begin reducing their balance sheet via attrition after rate hikes. There are approximately $300B in under 90 maturities that could begin rolling off their balance sheet as early as this spring. It is still to be determined to what extent they will allow this to occur. Markets LOVED the news and showed the love by losing 0.15% on the S&P 500 for the day. This came after the index was up as much as 2% at times.

Thursday

The S&P 500 slipped 0.54% Thursday in a move that was contrary to data. GDP walloped expectations, growing by 6.9% when 5.5% was expected. Even 5.5% would have been lofty, however 6.9% was well above estimates. The concern is that the continued hot growth (consumption) will continue to lead to higher prices (inflation).

Friday

Markets bounced to end the week as the S&P 500 gained 2.45% on the day and 0.77% for the week. The sentiment from Friday was a clear indication from investors that many of the week’s concerns were likely overblown.

Conclusion

Volatility was way up at mid-week as markets were trying to decide how deep they wanted to take this correction. Late in the week, Bulls took over and buying ensued. Often there is a second wave of selling after the storm appears to have cleared. So, we may not be out of the woods just yet. Look for more clarity after the Friday jobs report this week.

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Always remember that while this is a week in review, this does not trigger or relate to trading activity on your account with Financial Future Services. Broad diversification across several asset classes with a long-term holding strategy is the best strategy in any market environment.
Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.