Market moves across the month were to the south. Fixed income markets seemed to have a more drastic message on the monitor than that of equities.
Fixed Income: 2-Yr Treas Yield 4.16% | 10-Yr Treas. Yield 4.28%
Bond markets went for a reversal ride in October. After several months of falling rates, we began to see a pullback in the bond market as interest rates rose. The 2-year treasury rose 0.55%, while the 10-year treasury rose 0.54%. The good news is that while rising, the rates did not invert again. The long picture remains intact. We are still in an elevated rate environment with them more likely to drift south rather than north. This move may have been the result of predictions for a potential structure that would mean tariffs. This would reflect a higher inflation potential which would signal a slower path in future rate cuts. Additional good news is that while rates from 6 months on rose, shorter duration rates continued to fall. This bodes well for the normalization of the entire curve.
Equities: Dow Jones 1.34% | S&P 500 0.99% | NASDAQ 0.52%
While it was a down month for equites, the overall move south was not bad for the month. From the top of the market for the S&P 500 (10/18/2024) to the end of the month logged a 2.83%. This proved to be a mild lead up to the beginning of November. The nice part is that while a correction has not materialized, earnings season did, bringing the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 back down to 21.19.
Throughout the month utility stock did well until the last week of the month. A shifting towards Financial and consumer discretionary was underway. Neither of which are surprising given interest rates (favoring financials) and the fact that we are in the fourth quarter… I like to say, ‘Americans spend money they do not have on things they do not need’, AKA: holiday season!
Conclusion
Equities pulled back less than was indicative of the rate move on the bond market. The move there signaled more concern about higher rates for longer than equities chose to price in. The shift in rates seemed like a long-term change in projection, while short rates seemed anchored to FRB actions. The longer rage rates often can be equated to long range GDP expectations. If the view is that we would have stronger forward GDP in 5 years, then we see a stronger 5-year rate.
A Look Ahead…
Market responses in October could have been far more drastic than they were. We should feel fortunate that we got the October that we did. This still leaves a correction (a market fall of 10% to 19%) unattended to. The last one ended 10/27/2023. While stretched P/E’s from over the summer have become more reasonable, that’s been due to strong earnings. Those may continue in the short run, but moving into 2025 those might be harder to come by. It may very well cause a correction in the first half of the year.
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Markets rose for the week. Is the strength sustainable, or in bear market form, will the numbers fade?
Monday S&P 500 0.10% | NASDAQ 0.10%
Tech stocks weighed on the Monday trade as Chip maker Nvidia gave negative forward guidance. Additionally, trading signaled a more aggressive Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) off the back of the strong July Jobs report.
Tuesday S&P 500 0.42% | NASDAQ 1.19%
Markets opened down on the day and stayed there. They never deviating too far from where they started. NASDAQ led the losses lower. After three weeks of gains, markets were taking a breather leading up to Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released Wednesday.
Wednesday S&P 500 2.13% | NASDAQ 2.89%
CPI data surprised to the lower bound. Expectations were for inflation to fall from 9.1% to 8.7%. It actually came in at 8.5%. Core CPI (which strips out food & fuel) held steady at 5.9% when it was expected to rise to 6.1%. The weaker than expected CPI data yielded strong performance from the markets. The more inflation concerns subdue, the less interest rate hikes from the FRB are expected.
Thursday S&P 500 0.01% | NASDAQ 0.58%
Producer Price index (PPI) surprisingly fell to 9.8% in July from 11.3%. This data is usually higher than CPI data so while elevated, the reduction was welcome. Markets opened in the green but faded to flat by the close.
Friday S&P 500 1.73% | NASDAQ 2.09%
Consumer Sentiment projected to surprise to the upside this month. The estimate has risen to 55.1 where 48.4 was expected. Both readings are low, but a 5-point increase is encouraging. Markets rose dramatically to close the week.
Conclusion S&P 500 3.26% | NASDAQ 3.07%
The rallies on Wednesday and Friday brought us to 4 straight weeks of gains for the market. It is to be remembered that this is still a bear market. While the gains have been nice, they could be notoriously poached quickly. Conversely the wide number of positions in the green does signal good underlying strength to the current rally.
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Always remember that while this is a week in review, this does not trigger or relate to trading activity on your account with Financial Future Services. Broad diversification across several asset classes with a long-term holding strategy is the best strategy in any market environment.
Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.