 | AUTHOR: Jason Roque, CFP®, APMA®, AWMA® TITLE: Investment Adviser Rep – CCO TAGS: S&P 500, NASDAQ, Small Business, CPI, FRB Minutes, PPI, Jobs, Earnings |
The week was all about inflation data, but have we inflated its importance?
Monday S&P 500 0.04% | NASDAQ 0.03%
Markets were little changed on the day. There was very little economic news out before the bell on Monday. The week will likely be sharply focused on Wednesday when we get the updated figures for March inflation. The report is expected to show an increase from February.
Tuesday S&P 500 0.14% | NASDAQ 0.32%
Small business sentiment slipped in March to the lowest level since January 2013! Even still, markets advanced ahead of inflation data on Wednesday. Growth stocks out-performed which signals that an increase of inflation data would likely not hamper growth stock leadership. This is important because the rate cuts expected later this year would favor growth stocks most.
Wednesday S&P 500 0.95% | NASDAQ 0.84%
Consumer Price Index (CPI) information showed that inflation has stopped cooling. A 0.1% reading was replaced with a 0.4% reading. The main culprits were transportation services, energy, and home services. The markets moved sharply lower, but likely on the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) minutes release, rather than on CPI data. FRB Minutes showed concerns that inflation was stagnating, endangering the likelihood of the FRB cutting rates later this year.
Thursday S&P 500 0.74% | NASDAQ 1.68%
Producer Price Index (PPI), which is a proxy for wholesale inflation rose less than expected. Initial jobless claims fell on the day supporting a strong job market. The weaker than expected inflation data led to a bounce back rally by markets. Little was changed about rate cut expectations moving forward however, given the FRB minutes from March.
Friday S&P 500 1.46% | NASDAQ 1.62%
Michigan Consumer Sentiment is projected to slip, but remains in the high 70’s. Financial firms got earnings season underway on Friday and they did not impress. The slide on Friday solidified a down week for equities. The Nasdaq led markets lower on the day, but its Thursday rebound mitigated losses for the week.
Conclusion S&P 500 1.56% | NASDAQ 0.45%
The week ended well into the red. The fall represented the worst week for the S&P 500 since January. In January the focus was on the markets accepting that the FRB may only cut rates three times this year. This time it is on the realization that perhaps the FRB may not cut rates at all. As of now investor expectations are that the FRB will cut rates one, maybe two times (September and December). The meeting in two weeks should provide more clarity. Even with this change to rate cut expectations, it will be interesting to see what action the FRB takes with Quantitative Tightening. If they do start to slow the selling bonds that should provide some relief.
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In spite of a rocky start, markets grew nicely this last week. Should we expect more growth to come?
Monday
Markets dove to open the week. The S&P 500 lost 1.6%. Fears over slower growth due to the Delta Variant and rising inflation gripped the markets. Earnings did not fail to impress for the day, which resulted in a few highlights. However, they did not burn bright enough to offset the negative sentiment.
Tuesday
Markets rebounded strongly as the Monday move turned into a ‘buy the dip’ mentality. The S&P 500 ended up gaining 1.5% on the day. Housing starts out-performed, coming in at a 6.3% increase versus 2.1% the prior month.
Wednesday
The move higher continued on Wednesday, as earnings were in focus. Earnings pushed the markets higher as Netflix was the only major company to miss earnings on the day. The economic data calendar was light with mortgage data being the highlight.
Thursday
The S&P 500 advanced .20% on Thursday. It was a day where it felt as though the markets were chasing their own tail. Markets actually opened in the green, despite initial jobless claims missing expectations. It then fluctuated into the red fulfilling the economic data that was released, but ended back in the green… Investor sentiment has been running strong ever since Monday’s sell off.
Friday
Markets rallied into the end of the week, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.01% on the day. Manufacturing data outperformed, coming in at 63.1, beating the 62.0 expectation. Services fell short, falling to 59.8. While strongly expansionary, it missed the intended mark of 64.8. This is an indicator that the re-opening is moving slower than expected. A slower re-opening could signal that inflation may not be as ramped as initially thought by many investors.
Conclusion
The strong Friday performance brought the week to a close up 1.95% on the S&P 500. This was an impressive week of gains when you consider that the S&P 500 lost 1.6% on Monday. The rebound and strong close on Friday are a testament to earnings. They are currently running at 86% of companies beating expectations. We are about a quarter of the way through earnings season, so there is still much to look forward to.
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Your interest in our articles helps us reach more people. To show your appreciation for this post, please “like” the article on one of the links below:
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If you would like to receive this weekly article and other timely information follow us, here.
Always remember that while this is a week in review, this does not trigger or relate to trading activity on your account with Financial Future Services. Broad diversification across several asset classes with a long-term holding strategy is the best strategy in any market environment.
Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.