08|10|2021

The Pendulum | August 6, 2021

Market moves across the month were to the south. Fixed income markets seemed to have a more drastic message on the monitor than that of equities.

Fixed Income: 2-Yr Treas Yield 4.16% | 10-Yr Treas. Yield 4.28%

Bond markets went for a reversal ride in October.  After several months of falling rates, we began to see a pullback in the bond market as interest rates rose. The 2-year treasury rose 0.55%, while the 10-year treasury rose 0.54%. The good news is that while rising, the rates did not invert again. The long picture remains intact. We are still in an elevated rate environment with them more likely to drift south rather than north. This move may have been the result of predictions for a potential structure that would mean tariffs. This would reflect a higher inflation potential which would signal a slower path in future rate cuts. Additional good news is that while rates from 6 months on rose, shorter duration rates continued to fall. This bodes well for the normalization of the entire curve.

Equities: Dow Jones 1.34% | S&P 500 0.99% | NASDAQ 0.52%

While it was a down month for equites, the overall move south was not bad for the month. From the top of the market for the S&P 500 (10/18/2024) to the end of the month logged a 2.83%. This proved to be a mild lead up to the beginning of November. The nice part is that while a correction has not materialized, earnings season did, bringing the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 back down to 21.19.

Throughout the month utility stock did well until the last week of the month. A shifting towards Financial and consumer discretionary was underway. Neither of which are surprising given interest rates (favoring financials) and the fact that we are in the fourth quarter… I like to say, ‘Americans spend money they do not have on things they do not need’, AKA: holiday season!

Conclusion

Equities pulled back less than was indicative of the rate move on the bond market. The move there signaled more concern about higher rates for longer than equities chose to price in. The shift in rates seemed like a long-term change in projection, while short rates seemed anchored to FRB actions. The longer rage rates often can be equated to long range GDP expectations. If the view is that we would have stronger forward GDP in 5 years, then we see a stronger 5-year rate.

A Look Ahead…

Market responses in October could have been far more drastic than they were. We should feel fortunate that we got the October that we did. This still leaves a correction (a market fall of 10% to 19%) unattended to. The last one ended 10/27/2023. While stretched P/E’s from over the summer have become more reasonable, that’s been due to strong earnings. Those may continue in the short run, but moving into 2025 those might be harder to come by. It may very well cause a correction in the first half of the year.

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This last week was like a pendulum as the markets swung back and forth. Should this continue?

Monday

Markets slipped on Monday with the S&P 500 shifting down less than 0.2%. Manufacturing data disappointed, although the number still indicated expansion. The miss set a sell mood for the day.

Tuesday

The S&P 500 rose 0.8% on Tuesday as a broad-based rally grabbed hold. All major indices rose on the day. Factory orders, a good indication of future consumer demand, rose more than expected in June.

Wednesday

Markets retreated from the Tuesday rally. ADP employment data, often used as a predictor for the Friday jobs report, missed expectations. A foreshadowing of concern over the employment market dominated the trading day.

Thursday

The gyrations of the market continued on Thursday as the market regained the losses felt on Wednesday. This came as initial jobless claims dipped back below 400K, landing at 385K.

Friday

Although mild, markets ended the week on an up note. The S&P 500 gained about 0.10% on the day. The data was strong as jobs Friday delivered. Unemployment fell to 5.4% and 943K jobs were added in July. While strong it was not enough to elicit a strong market reaction as concerns over a hot re-opening persist.

Conclusion

For the week the S&P 500 gained 0.93%. Jobs were in focus this week, as was continued concerns over the spread of the Delta Variant. This coming week is set up to have a continued focus on jobs data and consumer data.

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Always remember that while this is a week in review, this does not trigger or relate to trading activity on your account with Financial Future Services. Broad diversification across several asset classes with a long-term holding strategy is the best strategy in any market environment.
Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.