The monitor flashed quite a bit of red last month. But the market was seemingly undeterred and pushed higher anyway. Should this continue?
Fixed Income: 2-Yr Treas Yield 3.91% | 10-Yr Treas. Yield 3.91%
The bond markets saw volatility in August as questions mounted about an impromptu rate-cut by the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB). The most meaningful fall came at the beginning of the month. The perceived weakness in jobs data prompted a move to safety as expectations increased for a rate cut. At the time, people were calling for 0.50% before the September meeting. Cooler heads prevailed and the market is now expecting a 0.25% cut in September. The more impressive data point over the last month was the parody reached on the last trading day of August. This was the first time the two closed at parity since July 5th, 2022! It is still to be determined if rate normalization (higher rates on longer dated fixed income) will prevail. It is a good sign that the anticipated rate cuts are making a large enough impact for us to reach parity.
Equities: Dow Jones 1.76% | S&P 500 2.28% | NASDAQ 0.65%
The market moves that led to a strong month for fixed income signaled weakness for the equity markets. The Nasdaq lost almost four percent in the first week of the month to spend the next two weeks crawling out of that hole. The last week of the month saw the index continue to falter. Strong earnings from bellwether Nvidia (NVDA) was not enough to bolster confidence. Investors seemed to come to the realization that the FRB will likely take a slow methodical path towards rate reductions. That path did not buoy equity markets. In a retracement of the July trades, other major market categories failed to capitalize on weaker large caps:
S&P 400 (Mid Cap Index): 0.21%
Russell 2000 (Small Cap Index): 1.59%
Conclusion
It was, in all, a good month… That’s for two reasons, 1) fixed income made up ground that equities lost, 2) the spread between the 2-yr treasury and the 10-yr treasury reached parity. Something of a signal that the soft landing the FRB is looking for has been achieved. Generally, a recession (that would be evident by this point) would have caused a normalization of the curve.
A Look Ahead…
We see two key reasons to expect further volatility in equity markets during the next month:
- The 22.40 price to earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 will need to narrow further before markets can start a real rally.
- September is notoriously the worst month of the year for equities:
- 2023: 5.35%
- 2022: 8.92%
- 2021: 4.89%
- 2020: 4.12%
- 2019: 2.32%
Some logic would point to the high frequency in recent years being a signal that volatility should weaken in September. I find that unlikely given the elevated P/E referenced.
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The bears are asserting themselves right now. Will the bulls be back this week to fend off the Bearish trend?
Monday
Happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day!
Tuesday
Markets opened the week as they had the prior week. Volatility was up and markets were down early! One concern was the potential for flight disruptions as wireless carrier giants roll out 5G near airports. The use of 5G has companies utilizing airwaves that had previously not been used. The concern being that they could provide potential interference for airlines.
Wednesday
The S&P 500 opened higher on Wednesday, but quickly faded into the red. At the open, equities were higher and fixed income was higher as well. Typically buying in fixed income is viewed as a defensive move. The equity sell-off that occurred into the close did not get accompanied by a sell-off in fixed income. Those continued to gain. This is a signal of perhaps a more bearish trend to come. The S&P 500 ended up losing 0.97% on the day. The NASDAQ, which lost 1.15% on the day, entered technical correction territory (being down more than 10% from it’s high). The S&P 500 is off 5.5% from it’s high on January 3rd.
Thursday
Markets opening strongly in the green. The S&P 500 was up more than 1.5% early on. Markets began to fade around 12:30PM EST and never looked back. The S&P 500 ended up falling 1.19% and the NASDAQ led the way, down 1.39%. Most of the losses came in the final hour of trading.
Friday
Movement within markets continued into the red on Friday, simply reinforcing the action from the entire week. Interest rates at the 10-year level fell. This is a more traditional reaction to an equity sell-off. The S&P 500 ended up dropping another 1.89%. The Nasdaq continued to lead the way, being down 2.72%.
Conclusion
The S&P 500 lost 5.68% last week and is down 8.31% from its January 3rd closing high. The Nasdaq 100, which has more growth focused positions, lost 7.49% last week and 12.88% from its November high. The controlled nature of this sell-off tends to reflect a more measured corrective environment. With the Federal Reserve Board meeting next week, all eyes will be on interest rates!
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Always remember that while this is a week in review, this does not trigger or relate to trading activity on your account with Financial Future Services. Broad diversification across several asset classes with a long-term holding strategy is the best strategy in any market environment.
Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.