The monitor flashed quite a bit of red last month. But the market was seemingly undeterred and pushed higher anyway. Should this continue?
Fixed Income: 2-Yr Treas Yield 3.91% | 10-Yr Treas. Yield 3.91%
The bond markets saw volatility in August as questions mounted about an impromptu rate-cut by the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB). The most meaningful fall came at the beginning of the month. The perceived weakness in jobs data prompted a move to safety as expectations increased for a rate cut. At the time, people were calling for 0.50% before the September meeting. Cooler heads prevailed and the market is now expecting a 0.25% cut in September. The more impressive data point over the last month was the parody reached on the last trading day of August. This was the first time the two closed at parity since July 5th, 2022! It is still to be determined if rate normalization (higher rates on longer dated fixed income) will prevail. It is a good sign that the anticipated rate cuts are making a large enough impact for us to reach parity.
Equities: Dow Jones 1.76% | S&P 500 2.28% | NASDAQ 0.65%
The market moves that led to a strong month for fixed income signaled weakness for the equity markets. The Nasdaq lost almost four percent in the first week of the month to spend the next two weeks crawling out of that hole. The last week of the month saw the index continue to falter. Strong earnings from bellwether Nvidia (NVDA) was not enough to bolster confidence. Investors seemed to come to the realization that the FRB will likely take a slow methodical path towards rate reductions. That path did not buoy equity markets. In a retracement of the July trades, other major market categories failed to capitalize on weaker large caps:
S&P 400 (Mid Cap Index): 0.21%
Russell 2000 (Small Cap Index): 1.59%
Conclusion
It was, in all, a good month… That’s for two reasons, 1) fixed income made up ground that equities lost, 2) the spread between the 2-yr treasury and the 10-yr treasury reached parity. Something of a signal that the soft landing the FRB is looking for has been achieved. Generally, a recession (that would be evident by this point) would have caused a normalization of the curve.
A Look Ahead…
We see two key reasons to expect further volatility in equity markets during the next month:
- The 22.40 price to earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 will need to narrow further before markets can start a real rally.
- September is notoriously the worst month of the year for equities:
- 2023: 5.35%
- 2022: 8.92%
- 2021: 4.89%
- 2020: 4.12%
- 2019: 2.32%
Some logic would point to the high frequency in recent years being a signal that volatility should weaken in September. I find that unlikely given the elevated P/E referenced.
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The S&P 500 gained ground last week. Are markets calming down or should choppy waters be expected?
Monday
The week opened strong as the S&P 500 rallied 1.87% into the close. The fears around rate hikes subsided as the 10-year treasury yield fell slightly. Markets will be focused on Tech this week as they were a few weeks ago on financials.
Tuesday
The S&P 500 gained 0.69%, in what was pretty much a sideways day for markets. Expectations are pretty low for this month’s jobs report due out Friday the 4th. Concerns are mounting that the January report will be pretty disappointing as it will encompass the height of Omicron.
Wednesday
Markets rose on Wednesday aided by a strong earnings report from Alphabet (Google). Additionally, they announced a stock split which was received well by investors. The S&P 500 gained 0.95% on the day.
Thursday
Markets fell sharply on Thursday, surrendering the week’s gains. The S&P 500 ended up shedding 2.43%. Factory orders fell more than expected and while services outperformed expectations, they still fell sharply. A major driver on the day was earnings as Meta missed on earnings per share. This caused their stock to dive, taking communication stocks with it.
Friday
Happy jobs Friday! Markets loved the report. Not only was the data strong, but there were revisions for the last few months (an increase of 750K jobs). So much for Omicron putting a damper on job data. The S&P 500 ended up adding 0.52% on the day.
Conclusion
The S&P 500 gained 1.55% for the week. This was the best week for the S&P 500 so far in 2022. Not shocking, given recent volatility. The coming week’s economic calendar is light; however, the earnings calendar is loaded. Expect recent volatility to continue. Currently, 77% of companies have been beating estimates. Baring disruption, we should expect the markets to welcome the increased earnings data.
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Always remember that while this is a week in review, this does not trigger or relate to trading activity on your account with Financial Future Services. Broad diversification across several asset classes with a long-term holding strategy is the best strategy in any market environment.
Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.