There was an onslaught of data last week, which led to gains. Should more be expected with the coming earnings season?
Monday S&P 500 0.27%| NASDAQ 1.09%
ISM Manufacturing unexpectedly slipped and remains in contractionary territory. The weaker economic data would typically signal lower rates as rate cut expectations would increase. To the contrary, 10-year treasuries rose on the day. In the face of weak economic data, the start of the quarter brought optimism towards the next three months.
Tuesday S&P 500 0.62% | NASDAQ .84%
JOLTs job openings rose more than expected to 8.14M openings. For perspective, there were 6.6M unemployed as of the May report. The strong jobs data did not deter markets, though; this may be because the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Chair, J. Powell, spoke on the day. He indicated that progress is being made towards their inflation target. This is the ‘secret sauce’ needed to justify future rate cuts.
Wednesday S&P 500 0.51% | NASDAQ 0.88%
Initial jobless claims rose for the week to 238K from 234K; the level remains elevated, albeit from all-time lows. Factory orders unexpectedly slipped into the negative on the month. Additionally, ISM Services unexpectedly slipped into contractionary territory. This is all bad news for economic production, so why did the markets rise? Interest rates fell as this data increases the likelihood that the FRB will lower rates sooner than expected. The heightened odds are now calling for a .25% cut in September and December, according to CME FedWatch.
Thursday S&P 500 -% | NASDAQ -%
Happy Independence Day!
Friday S&P 500 0.54% | NASDAQ 0.90%
Happy Jobs Friday! The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, and participation rose to 62.6% from 62.5%, all for June. The unemployment rate went up even though we added 206K jobs??? Participation went up so, with more people in the market, the rate can go up even as jobs are added. This is a positive signal that workers are returning to the work force. The rise on equity markets, however, was on hopes that economic weakness would be enough for an FRB rate cut.
Conclusion S&P 500 1.95% | NASDAQ 3.55%
This was a busy week for economic data, especially for a holiday shortened week. We got weaker Jobs, manufacturing, Services, and Factory orders. The weakness led to stronger markets on hopes the FRB will cut rates BEFORE a recession can materialize. The coming week starts second quarter earnings. Valuations are stretched (S&P 500 P/E: 28.94) and economic production is weak, very little should be expected from this season. This could be the start of volatility that would lead into the Autumn.
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The S&P 500 gained ground last week. Are markets calming down or should choppy waters be expected?
Monday
The week opened strong as the S&P 500 rallied 1.87% into the close. The fears around rate hikes subsided as the 10-year treasury yield fell slightly. Markets will be focused on Tech this week as they were a few weeks ago on financials.
Tuesday
The S&P 500 gained 0.69%, in what was pretty much a sideways day for markets. Expectations are pretty low for this month’s jobs report due out Friday the 4th. Concerns are mounting that the January report will be pretty disappointing as it will encompass the height of Omicron.
Wednesday
Markets rose on Wednesday aided by a strong earnings report from Alphabet (Google). Additionally, they announced a stock split which was received well by investors. The S&P 500 gained 0.95% on the day.
Thursday
Markets fell sharply on Thursday, surrendering the week’s gains. The S&P 500 ended up shedding 2.43%. Factory orders fell more than expected and while services outperformed expectations, they still fell sharply. A major driver on the day was earnings as Meta missed on earnings per share. This caused their stock to dive, taking communication stocks with it.
Friday
Happy jobs Friday! Markets loved the report. Not only was the data strong, but there were revisions for the last few months (an increase of 750K jobs). So much for Omicron putting a damper on job data. The S&P 500 ended up adding 0.52% on the day.
Conclusion
The S&P 500 gained 1.55% for the week. This was the best week for the S&P 500 so far in 2022. Not shocking, given recent volatility. The coming week’s economic calendar is light; however, the earnings calendar is loaded. Expect recent volatility to continue. Currently, 77% of companies have been beating estimates. Baring disruption, we should expect the markets to welcome the increased earnings data.
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Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.