Market moves across the month were to the south. Fixed income markets seemed to have a more drastic message on the monitor than that of equities.
Fixed Income: 2-Yr Treas Yield 4.16% | 10-Yr Treas. Yield 4.28%
Bond markets went for a reversal ride in October. After several months of falling rates, we began to see a pullback in the bond market as interest rates rose. The 2-year treasury rose 0.55%, while the 10-year treasury rose 0.54%. The good news is that while rising, the rates did not invert again. The long picture remains intact. We are still in an elevated rate environment with them more likely to drift south rather than north. This move may have been the result of predictions for a potential structure that would mean tariffs. This would reflect a higher inflation potential which would signal a slower path in future rate cuts. Additional good news is that while rates from 6 months on rose, shorter duration rates continued to fall. This bodes well for the normalization of the entire curve.
Equities: Dow Jones 1.34% | S&P 500 0.99% | NASDAQ 0.52%
While it was a down month for equites, the overall move south was not bad for the month. From the top of the market for the S&P 500 (10/18/2024) to the end of the month logged a 2.83%. This proved to be a mild lead up to the beginning of November. The nice part is that while a correction has not materialized, earnings season did, bringing the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 back down to 21.19.
Throughout the month utility stock did well until the last week of the month. A shifting towards Financial and consumer discretionary was underway. Neither of which are surprising given interest rates (favoring financials) and the fact that we are in the fourth quarter… I like to say, ‘Americans spend money they do not have on things they do not need’, AKA: holiday season!
Conclusion
Equities pulled back less than was indicative of the rate move on the bond market. The move there signaled more concern about higher rates for longer than equities chose to price in. The shift in rates seemed like a long-term change in projection, while short rates seemed anchored to FRB actions. The longer rage rates often can be equated to long range GDP expectations. If the view is that we would have stronger forward GDP in 5 years, then we see a stronger 5-year rate.
A Look Ahead…
Market responses in October could have been far more drastic than they were. We should feel fortunate that we got the October that we did. This still leaves a correction (a market fall of 10% to 19%) unattended to. The last one ended 10/27/2023. While stretched P/E’s from over the summer have become more reasonable, that’s been due to strong earnings. Those may continue in the short run, but moving into 2025 those might be harder to come by. It may very well cause a correction in the first half of the year.
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Markets flashed a recession signal last week. Is the party over or do we still have room to grow?
Monday S&P 500 0.71% | NASDAQ 1.31%
The markets started the day and week in the green, but quickly faded as the 5-year and 30-year yields inverted. This means you could get more interest from a 5-year bond than a 30-year bond. This leads to fears of a recession. The key rate that would forward project a recession is the 2-year vs the 10-year (foreshadow). Markets bounced back late to end in the green as investor sentiment continues to support market valuations.
Tuesday S&P 500 1.23% | NASDAQ 1.84%
Markets rose, but it was in spite of some poor performance out of key categories. The Energy complex struggled as the shutdown of Shanghai, due to COVID testing, is taking a toll on demand. Optimism over a stock split in TSLA strengthened sentiment late in the day.
Wednesday S&P 500 0.63% | NASDAQ 1.21%
Russian demand for energy payments in rubles caused concern as sanctions have attempted to force a reduction of ruble use. Additionally, a classic signal for a future recession (6 to 24 months out) triggered. The 2-year vs the 10-year treasury rates inverted. The meaning can be seen that rate of growth beyond 2 years will be lower than current growth rates.
Thursday S&P 500 1.57% | NASDAQ 1.54%
Oil prices slid as another round of Ukraine/Russia talks gets underway. The US also announced a release of 1M barrels of oil per day from strategic reserves. Initial jobless claims rose last week and was an ominous foreshadowing of tomorrow’s job report.
Friday S&P 500 0.34% | NASDAQ 0.29%
Jobs Friday! Job data impressed as the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% and 431K nonfarm payrolls were added in March. The all-important participation rate moved a notch higher to 62.4%. So why didn’t the markets soar? The strength of the job market means the FRB is more likely to do a 0.50% rate hike in May. This pushed the 2-year yield over the 10-year yield again. As a classic sign of a coming recession (within the next 2 years) markets took the signal hard.
Conclusion S&P 500 0.06% | NASDAQ 0.65%
Though the intra-week volatility was elevated, markets ended the week slightly unchanged. The Nasdaq edged higher than the S&P 500 as bonds flashed a classic recession signal for the future. Inversion of the yield curve happens more than just leading into a recession; however, it precedes every recession. The last two times it has happened, the S&P 500 has grown pretty substantially for the 12 months. So, even if the signal is right, the party is not quite over. Think of it as last call…
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Always remember that while this is a week in review, this does not trigger or relate to trading activity on your account with Financial Future Services. Broad diversification across several asset classes with a long-term holding strategy is the best strategy in any market environment.
Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.