Back in Green! | September 9, 2022 | FFS

Markets sold consistently across the week. Is there more red to expect in coming weeks?

Monday S&P 500 1.20% | NASDAQ 1.79%

Happy Tax Day! Retail sales expanded more than expected in March. Three major companies reported earnings, all three met expectations, all of which were financials. This was not surprising as financials usually head up earnings season. They also give us a good indication of how earnings season should go. Retail sales, however, took center stage as a strong consumer reduces the need for Federal Reserve Board (FRB) rate cuts. This caused an outsized move downward as investors anticipate less stimulus for 2024.

Tuesday S&P 500 0.21% | NASDAQ 0.12%

Housing data for March came in weaker than market expectation. Ten major companies reported earnings, with two missing expectations. Although mild, the losses continued. FRB Chair Powell indicated that inflation’s recent strength does not give the board confidence to start easing policy.

Wednesday S&P 500 0.58% | NASDAQ 1.15%

11 major companies reported earnings on the day, with three missing expectations. Focus was squarely on earnings as there was little economic data on the day. Tech stocks took a hit as AI chip orders for a specific company did not meet expectations. As would be expected this hit the tech heavy NASDAQ harder than the S&P 500.

Thursday S&P 500 0.22% | NASDAQ 0.52%

Initial unemployment claims remain benign. Existing home sales also slowed in March. 11 major companies reported earnings on the day, with one missing expectations. Markets were down for the day, but in a less dramatic fashion. Robust employment data typically is not favorable information when hoping for an FRB rate cut (as investors are).

Friday S&P 500 0.88% | NASDAQ 2.05%

Six major companies reported earnings on the day, with one missing expectations. NASDAQ led the way lower as Tech and communications got hit hardest. The best performers on the day were defensives, like utilities, healthcare, staples, and also financials.

Conclusion S&P 500 3.05% | NASDAQ 5.52%

The week was bloody. There was not a single up day for the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ Composite. The moves were not founded in fundamental data, as earnings did well. Some forward guidance shows warning of slowing revenues throughout the year, but that is normal for the last two years. Economic data, which signals the economy is doing well, has actually pushed stocks lower. The stronger the economy, the less likely the FRB is to act in reducing rates. The sell-off has extended to approximately 6%. It may take a breather in the coming days but expect that we are not done.

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After three weeks of losses, markets were back in the green last week. Should it continue?

Monday S&P 500 -% | NASDAQ -%

Happy Labor Day!

Tuesday S&P 500 0.41% | NASDAQ 0.74%

ISM Services Data came in at 56.9, much higher than expected. Meanwhile S&P Service PMI came in at 43.7! These two surveys have deviated from each other as of late. The ISM survey is seen as broader as it covers more industries and therefore garners more market attention. The strength of the economy gives more freedom to the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) to be aggressive against inflation.

Wednesday S&P 500 1.83% | NASDAQ 2.14%

A fall in oil prices led to a Tech led rally that raised all markets. Lower oil prices signal lower future inflation pressure, which means less risk of higher rates from the FRB. While rates are rising in the short-term, markets are starting to look at the rate hike path for 2023.

Thursday S&P 500 0.66% | NASDAQ 0.60%

Two green days in a row… This has not happened for the last two weeks. The largest gains came in Financials, Healthcare, and Materials. Healthcare is a decidedly defensive play. Financials would perform well on the prospect of further rate hikes.

Friday S&P 500 1.53% | NASDAQ 2.11%

Friday saw a rise in oil prices, threats from Russia regarding fuel, and FRB comments showing commitment to rate hikes… Markets rose… At this point this may be a rally off the recent lows and less so about the daily economic data.

Conclusion S&P 500 3.65% | NASDAQ 4.14%

After three weeks of market losses, both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite gained for the holiday shortened week. Interestingly, volume was light last week as though it was a summer month. The FRB meets next week, and a 0.75% rate hike is expected. That could likely dampen some of the growth prospects in the short run.