Markets tossed and turned throughout the week but saw only minor losses. Will increasing guidance on trade and monetary policy give some clarity through the summer?
Monday
S&P 500 0.79% | NASDAQ 0.92%
The long weekend led markets to sell from the start on Monday. The July 9th tariff deadline imposed by the administration loomed large but was extended by the President until August 1st.
Tuesday
S&P 500 0.07% | NASDAQ 0.03%
Markets flattened out after the Monday sell-off while yields rose on treasuries and the dollar strengthened. The bid for safety came as tariff announcements continued to come in.
Wednesday
S&P 500 0.61% | NASDAQ 0.94%
The Federal Reserve’s Meeting minutes from June were released which provided an inside look on discussions from officials. Rate cuts were mentioned but will likely be pushed until September, at the earliest, barring any change in inflation data. Markets celebrated the measured approach to policy as well as progress on trade deals which benefited several tech companies through the close.
Thursday
S&P 500 0.27% | NASDAQ 0.09%
Tariff policies on specific countries continued to roll in and duties on specific goods seemingly drove trading activity on the day. The “winners” of trade negotiations will ultimately come down to specific needs with world trade partners. The scrambling for answers on trade has slowed as more clarity on the policies has been announced. Volatility readings fell for a third straight day.
Friday
S&P 500 0.33% | NASDAQ 0.22%
The dollar continued to strengthen as data from policy announcements were digested this week. There has been a higher tolerance recently as flows have stabilized between safety and risk-on assets.
Conclusion
S&P 500 0.31% | NASDAQ 0.08%
There were some highs and some lows on the week; however, the swing back and forth was controlled by a sense of optimism of trade negotiations and corporate earnings expectations. Earnings, theoretically, should be impacted by tariff policies and the former will be closely watched in the coming weeks. Although a rate cut is not expected in the upcoming July meeting, markets lean towards forward guidance on the increasing potential of a rate cut in September and beyond. In declining interest rate environment, companies can deploy more cash towards investment and growth instead of interest rate expenses. The journey to a 2% inflation rate has been long but there just might be some gains on the horizon for markets if the Federal Reserve decides to act.
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