05|27|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | May 23, 2025
Yield Curve: Yields ended higher for the 4th straight week. 2-year yields rose from 3.98% to 4.00%. 10-year yields climbed from 4.43% to 4.51%, pushing down the prices of...
05|19|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | May 16, 2025
Consumer Goods & Materials: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (MoM)(Apr) rose 0.2%, less than the 0.3% forecast. Year-over-year it rose 2.3%, less than forecast and the lowest reading since February...
05|05|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | May 2, 2025
Unemployment: Jobs data were mixed this week. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 177,000 (Apr), exceeding the 138,000 forecasted. However, JOLTS job openings fell from 7.480M (Feb) to 7.192M (Mar), missing...
04|28|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | April 25, 2025
Housing and Building: Existing Home Sales declined to 4.02M (Mar) from 4.27M (Feb), reflecting a month-over-month drop of 5.9%. Building permits increased from 1.459M (Feb) to 1.467M (Mar), but...
04|21|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | April 18, 2025
Retail Sales: Retail Sales (MoM)(Mar) jumped 1.4%, the largest monthly increase since January 2023. Core Retail Sales (MoM)(Mar) were also positive, though the increase was a more modest 0.5...
04|14|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | April 11, 2025
In reviwing Core Consumer Prices (excluding volatile food and energy), they rose just 0.1% in March which were below expectations and the smallest monthly increase since June 2024. On...
03|24|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | March 21, 2025
Retail Sales: Retail Sales (MoM)(Feb) ticked up just 0.2%, falling short of the 0.6% forecast. The reading points to a possible slowdown in consumer spending, which is a key...
03|10|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | March 7, 2025
Manufacturing & Services: February’s ISM data showed a divergence between sectors. Manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.9 to 50.3. Non-Manufacturing (Services) PMI rose from 52.8 to 53.5. 50 marks contraction/expansion. Be...
03|03|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | February 28, 2025
Consumer Goods & Materials: The Core PCE Price Index (Jan) (MoM) rose 0.3%, as expected. The index increased by 2.6% YoY, the lowest since last July. Core PCE, which...
02|25|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | February 21, 2025
Housing and Building: Housing starts (MoM) (Jan), which measures the change in the number of new constructions underway, declined 9.8%. The annualized number came in at 1.366M, less than...