04|14|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | April 11, 2025
In reviwing Core Consumer Prices (excluding volatile food and energy), they rose just 0.1% in March which were below expectations and the smallest monthly increase since June 2024. On...
04|07|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | April 4, 2025
S&P 500: The S&P 500 declined by 506.86 points last week, closing at 5,074.08 and bringing its YTD return to -13.73%. This marked the index’s sharpest weekly pullback in...
03|24|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | March 21, 2025
Retail Sales: Retail Sales (MoM)(Feb) ticked up just 0.2%, falling short of the 0.6% forecast. The reading points to a possible slowdown in consumer spending, which is a key...
03|18|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | March 14, 2025
S&P 500: The S&P 500 declined for the fourth week in a row, dropping -131.26 points, and closing at 5,638.94 (down -4.13% YTD). The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) settled at...
03|10|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | March 7, 2025
Manufacturing & Services: February’s ISM data showed a divergence between sectors. Manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.9 to 50.3. Non-Manufacturing (Services) PMI rose from 52.8 to 53.5. 50 marks contraction/expansion. Be...
03|03|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | February 28, 2025
Consumer Goods & Materials: The Core PCE Price Index (Jan) (MoM) rose 0.3%, as expected. The index increased by 2.6% YoY, the lowest since last July. Core PCE, which...
02|25|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | February 21, 2025
Housing and Building: Housing starts (MoM) (Jan), which measures the change in the number of new constructions underway, declined 9.8%. The annualized number came in at 1.366M, less than...
02|18|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | February 14, 2025
Consumer Goods & Materials: Price data made headlines this past week. U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)(MoM)(Jan) jumped 0.5%, higher than forecast. The year-over-year number climbed to 3.0%. U.S. Producer...
02|10|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | February 7, 2025
Unemployment: Jobs numbers were a key focus in this week’s economic headlines. Nonfarm payrolls (Jan) indicated the U.S. economy added 143k jobs, fewer than expected. The unemployment rate (Jan)...
02|03|2025
Leading Indicator Watch | January 31, 2025
Consumer Goods & Materials: U.S. Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, ticked up from 0.1% to 0.2%, in line with expectations. Year-over-year, the index...