Market moves across the month were to the south. Fixed income markets seemed to have a more drastic message on the monitor than that of equities.
Fixed Income: 2-Yr Treas Yield 4.16% | 10-Yr Treas. Yield 4.28%
Bond markets went for a reversal ride in October. After several months of falling rates, we began to see a pullback in the bond market as interest rates rose. The 2-year treasury rose 0.55%, while the 10-year treasury rose 0.54%. The good news is that while rising, the rates did not invert again. The long picture remains intact. We are still in an elevated rate environment with them more likely to drift south rather than north. This move may have been the result of predictions for a potential structure that would mean tariffs. This would reflect a higher inflation potential which would signal a slower path in future rate cuts. Additional good news is that while rates from 6 months on rose, shorter duration rates continued to fall. This bodes well for the normalization of the entire curve.
Equities: Dow Jones 1.34% | S&P 500 0.99% | NASDAQ 0.52%
While it was a down month for equites, the overall move south was not bad for the month. From the top of the market for the S&P 500 (10/18/2024) to the end of the month logged a 2.83%. This proved to be a mild lead up to the beginning of November. The nice part is that while a correction has not materialized, earnings season did, bringing the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 back down to 21.19.
Throughout the month utility stock did well until the last week of the month. A shifting towards Financial and consumer discretionary was underway. Neither of which are surprising given interest rates (favoring financials) and the fact that we are in the fourth quarter… I like to say, ‘Americans spend money they do not have on things they do not need’, AKA: holiday season!
Conclusion
Equities pulled back less than was indicative of the rate move on the bond market. The move there signaled more concern about higher rates for longer than equities chose to price in. The shift in rates seemed like a long-term change in projection, while short rates seemed anchored to FRB actions. The longer rage rates often can be equated to long range GDP expectations. If the view is that we would have stronger forward GDP in 5 years, then we see a stronger 5-year rate.
A Look Ahead…
Market responses in October could have been far more drastic than they were. We should feel fortunate that we got the October that we did. This still leaves a correction (a market fall of 10% to 19%) unattended to. The last one ended 10/27/2023. While stretched P/E’s from over the summer have become more reasonable, that’s been due to strong earnings. Those may continue in the short run, but moving into 2025 those might be harder to come by. It may very well cause a correction in the first half of the year.
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Markets continued to see turbulence last week. Is there something to it, or a blip on the radar?
Monday
The week opened on a positive note as the S&P 500 shrugged off the prior week’s losses and gained 0.25% on the day. The advance was spear headed by an advance in commodity prices. This follows recent hurricane activity in the southeast.
Tuesday
Markets resumed the recent trend of falling. The S&P 500 shed 0.6% on the day, while bonds saw a safe haven bid. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 4.0% YoY (Aug), slower than the 4.2% expected. Slowing inflationary pressure could be attributed to failing consumer sentiment but could also be easing supply side constraints.
Wednesday
The seesaw continued as markets rose sharply on Wednesday. Sharpley is relative, as the rise was 0.9%; as of late changes in value of more than 0.5% have become sharp moves. VIX is supposed to be forward looking volatility for the next month. When VIX is at 20 (currently) that would imply an expectation that moves will be less than 1%/day.
Thursday
Retail sales unexpectedly jumped, which caused a down day for equities. This is a continuation of the good news is bad news that has been occurring as of late. Unemployment data was also released on Thursday showing that initial jobless claims increased from 312K to 332K. This was largely expected with regional hurricane activity tamping down job activity. So, it carried little impact on market activity.
Friday
The week ended with a stumble as all, but one major index (including bond indices) fell on the day. Consumer sentiment remained a tepid 71.0 in September. For frame of reference the lowest level during 2020 was 71.8 in April. The concern is that a weak consumer will lead to a weak economy as consumption makes up approximately 70% of economic activity.
Conclusion
It was a week to forget for markets as the S&P 500 fell for the second week. While the weekly loss was only a little more than a half percent, the fall from the peak is now about 2.5%. A true correction would be a 10% fall, which is still a long way off. Looming ahead, however, is a debt ceiling fight, variant news (always), the rest of hurricane season, consumption concerns, and a Federal Reserve Board (FRB) meeting this week. Nothing to see here…
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Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.