We entered the week in a bout for another strong weekly finish. Markets finished higher but how much strength do they have going into the final rounds?
Monday S&P 500 0.42% | NASDAQ 0.38%
Last day of the 3rd quarter finished strong after the month of September started out bumpy. The S&P500 finished up 2% on the month. Markets seemed to be pleased with Jerome Powell’s public remarks that the U.S. economy remains strong.
Tuesday S&P 500 -0.93% | NASDAQ -1.53%
The first day of October headed the other direction, falling from the all-time high set in the last few days of September. News in manufacturing showed further contraction while the JOLTs job openings increased by over 300k in the month of August. A hiring boost would increase the probability of a solid 4th quarter ahead.
Wednesday S&P 500 0.01% | NASDAQ 0.08%
Markets barely moved on the day. A good portion of the fall from Tuesday’s trading leveled off following the news of ongoing turmoil in the Middle East. Oil prices rose accordingly but traders awaited more data to come to close out the week on the U.S. Economy.
Thursday S&P 500 –0.17% | NASDAQ -0.04%
Markets ended relatively flat, but volatility increased on the day. Geopolitical events hung over the day and seemingly overshadowed the news of positive Services data and lower continuing jobless claims.
Friday S&P 500 0.90% | NASDAQ 1.22%
We made it to Jobs Friday! Labor data was received with great fanfare as almost 100k more jobs were added in September than were originally forecasted. The unemployment rate fell perhaps as a corollary effect of more job openings and the same amount of people looking for work. If the labor market remains strong then hopes of a resilient economy remain solidly intact.
Conclusion S&P 500 0.22% | NASDAQ 0.10%
Markets dodged and weaved throughout the week but if you missed most of the activity you would’ve thought the major indexes didn’t even flinch. There was some pressure overseas, but sights focused in on the key points for the week and that was jobs data. As has been the case, jobs and inflation data have been driving market movements ever since March of this year. The former is remaining steady (if not improving) while the latter is improving (not staying steady). Markets could falter on even the slightest change in either area of economic data, but the rest of the year appears to be shaping up for a strong finish. The 3rd quarter is estimated to finish with 2.5% growth which would be above growth trend. The next economic foe will likely be the uncertainty surrounding the election (which is not uncommon) as investors gauge what-if scenarios for political power. The runup to election day will likely knock the markets back down from their all-time highs in the coming weeks.
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