Market moves across the month were to the south. Fixed income markets seemed to have a more drastic message on the monitor than that of equities.
Fixed Income: 2-Yr Treas Yield 4.16% | 10-Yr Treas. Yield 4.28%
Bond markets went for a reversal ride in October. After several months of falling rates, we began to see a pullback in the bond market as interest rates rose. The 2-year treasury rose 0.55%, while the 10-year treasury rose 0.54%. The good news is that while rising, the rates did not invert again. The long picture remains intact. We are still in an elevated rate environment with them more likely to drift south rather than north. This move may have been the result of predictions for a potential structure that would mean tariffs. This would reflect a higher inflation potential which would signal a slower path in future rate cuts. Additional good news is that while rates from 6 months on rose, shorter duration rates continued to fall. This bodes well for the normalization of the entire curve.
Equities: Dow Jones 1.34% | S&P 500 0.99% | NASDAQ 0.52%
While it was a down month for equites, the overall move south was not bad for the month. From the top of the market for the S&P 500 (10/18/2024) to the end of the month logged a 2.83%. This proved to be a mild lead up to the beginning of November. The nice part is that while a correction has not materialized, earnings season did, bringing the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 back down to 21.19.
Throughout the month utility stock did well until the last week of the month. A shifting towards Financial and consumer discretionary was underway. Neither of which are surprising given interest rates (favoring financials) and the fact that we are in the fourth quarter… I like to say, ‘Americans spend money they do not have on things they do not need’, AKA: holiday season!
Conclusion
Equities pulled back less than was indicative of the rate move on the bond market. The move there signaled more concern about higher rates for longer than equities chose to price in. The shift in rates seemed like a long-term change in projection, while short rates seemed anchored to FRB actions. The longer rage rates often can be equated to long range GDP expectations. If the view is that we would have stronger forward GDP in 5 years, then we see a stronger 5-year rate.
A Look Ahead…
Market responses in October could have been far more drastic than they were. We should feel fortunate that we got the October that we did. This still leaves a correction (a market fall of 10% to 19%) unattended to. The last one ended 10/27/2023. While stretched P/E’s from over the summer have become more reasonable, that’s been due to strong earnings. Those may continue in the short run, but moving into 2025 those might be harder to come by. It may very well cause a correction in the first half of the year.
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We saw another route last week as economic data strengthened. What does it mean for the road ahead?
Monday S&P 500 1.06% | NASDAQ 1.27%
Markets opened the week on a positive tone. The gains were led by tech stocks, which were following the lead of Asian and European markets overnight. Much of the rally on the day was based on a falling dollar.
Tuesday S&P 500 4.32% | NASDAQ 5.16%
Consumer Price Index (CPI) Data was released Tuesday morning and the headline reading fell to 8.3% from 8.5%. The underlying core data strengthened to 6.3% from 5.9%. This was an unexpected move as housing costs (which represent 40% of core CPI) firmed, pushing the number up. The markets sold off dramatically in response to the news. Firming core data would give the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) more reason to be aggressive on rates. This solidified a move of 0.75% and perhaps even 1.0% on September 22nd…
Wednesday S&P 500 0.30% | NASDAQ 0.70%
Markets ebbed and flowed throughout the day, trying to find direction after Tuesday’s selloff. They ended up closing up with a last 10-minute run up from being 0.5% down.
Thursday S&P 500 1.13% | NASDAQ 1.43%
Initial jobless claims continued to improve and retail sales advanced more than anticipated. This did not move the markets higher. Stronger retail sales signal more work for the FRB to erode demand. Lower unemployment signals more dollars in consumers pockets to spend. The FRB needs to see higher unemployment in their efforts to contain inflation…
Friday S&P 500 0.72% | NASDAQ 0.90%
Consumer sentiment is projected to rise to 59.5 for the month of September. While this is good news, it signals the potential of stronger consumer spending which causes further inflation. This factor pushed stocks further into the red for the week.
Conclusion S&P 500 4.77% | NASDAQ 5.48%
It was a rough week for markets although economically the data was showing strength. We need economic figures to start reflecting rate hikes implemented in order to see a slowdown in the FRB’s path. Looking ahead, this past Friday was a major options expiration date. When options expire, usually gains are to be had the following week as long positions are taken. This may be a short-lived bump, however, given the strong economic data.
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Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.